Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Economic Good News!



If your idea of good economic news is huge federal budget deficits for the next decade. More wonderful news at the link.

H/T Mankiw.

UPDATE: From The Corner.

Heritage Foundation budget expert and NRO contributor Brian Riedl parses the CBO's ten-year budget baseline. Some key points (emphasis added):

—While the CBO projects a ten-year deficit of $6 trillion, a more realistic current policy baseline – that assumes the tax cuts are extended, the AMT is fixed, and discretionary spending grows with the economy – shows a ten-year deficit of $13 trillion.

—By 2020, this more realistic budget forecasts a $1.9 trillion annual budget deficit, a public debt of $22 trillion (98 percent of GDP), and annual net interest spending surpassing $1 trillion (one-quarter of all tax revenue).

Compared to the historical average, 88 percent of the added 2020 budget deficit comes from higher spending, and just 12 percent comes from lower tax revenues – and even that assumes all 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are extended and the AMT is patched. Clearly, spending is the problem.

—After the debt slowly grew to $5.8 trillion through 2008, the more realistic baseline shows the federal government adding an astonishing $16.3 trillion in new debt between 2009 and 2020—$130,000 per household over those 12 years.

—Overall, from 2001 through 2009, federal spending surged 51 percent faster than inflation. Federal spending per household expanded from $21,510 in 2001 to $29,813 in 2009.

This baseline does not count the cost of president Obama’s proposals, such as health care and cap-and-trade, which would increase spending further.

Riedl's full report, if you can stomach it, can be found here.

12 comments:

innominatus said...

>>>By 2020, this more realistic budget forecasts a $1.9 trillion annual budget deficit, a public debt of $22 trillion (98 percent of GDP)

So they're confident that the GDP will be almost doubled in ten years? Wouldn't that require, like, better than 6% or so annual growth? A little optimistic, eh?

>>>if you can stomach it

Umm, I'm already cramping at the numbers you posted. I think I'll stop there.

Boy Named Sous said...

Funny you should post this just before I dropped by to show you this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk

OregonGuy said...

Inno--

Change, then hope? Or, hope, then change?

Sux, huh?

Sous--

Dandy rip on the rap. I was going to post in a couple of days. Hope you found this on Russ Roberts' place over at Cafe Hayek:

http://cafehayek.com/2010/01/keynes-vs-hayek-rap-video.html
.

Boy Named Sous said...
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Boy Named Sous said...

Nope, I found it at the Llama Butchers, who got it from the NRO Corner. But I'll check out Cafe Hayek. A cousin recently turned me on to Mises, and I'm beginning to resent not having been exposed to these Austrians earlier in life.

Bob said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bob said...

Good news, citizen! We've won!

-Winston Smith (ca. any day now.)

OregonGuy said...

Bob is right.

Statement by Governor Kulongoski on Special Election

(Salem) – “Tonight, I want to thank Oregonians for voting to protect critical public services during this difficult economic period.

“Even with this result, we still have some challenges before us. It is going to be a slow growth recovery from this recession for Oregon and the entire nation. We must continue working together if we want to position Oregon for economic success in the long term.

“The election is over. Tomorrow is a new day and we must make a commitment to put our differences aside and work together to make the best choices we can for Oregon’s collective future.”

We are well and truly fucked.
.

Boy Named Sous said...

Screwed Blue.

MAX Redline said...

The "governor" is already looking toward "modifying" the Kicker.

If I owned a business, I'd be looking at moving it to Kalama.

Anonymous said...

dear all,

we have managed to beat out many wahington business in the past with what we manufacture- this past election wipes out us--we were working cheat to get established and now it's for a lost--


fu oregon see ya from a distance

Anonymous said...

ment to say we have been working for cheap--to get established.