Imagine, if you will, being a well educated engineer finding out that whatever his, or her, training was is no longer functional.
Imagine being a trained professional--0ther than a "teacher"--that was told that his outcomes would be directed by a political authority rather than by the investigation of his professional inquiries.
There is no more a conceited class of individuals than our political class. They actually believe that by passing laws mandating change, that they can effect change.
I remember a prof from O.S.U. that wanted us to refer on to him references to mirrors. One of the quotes that I remember had to do with "he stared long enough into the mirror until he turned into a monkey."
Our current political situation reminds me of that observation. And that is, we aren't looking into the mirror, from fear that we will see a monkey. I looked into the mirror tonight, to test the theory. I saw me. I'm not pretty. I'm growing old. I have bags under my eyes and spider veins have broken in my cheeks. Me teeth are yellowing, prolly because I smoke. Or, mebbe, just because I'm getting older. (I noticed a guy older than I this past weekend with "white" teeth. Hella. I smoke, drink and golf. Effim.)
We are afraid of our own humanity. We don't want to grow old. We don't want to die. What an infantile culture we've become.
You are gonna die. Prolly painfully.
But, your death will not have anything to do with whether you are a Leftist or an American. You're gonna die because you grow old. What is the number one cause of cancer? It isn't smoking. It's longevity. The statistical regression between age and cancer isn't one that Al Gore ManBearPig would understand. But it is the one that you either understand, or don't. We can mandate where we want people to die--in terms of their years. What we can't mandate is that people die when it is their time.
Obama Care. When your choices aren't important anymore.
Change.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Kulturny, or Ne Kulturny
There is a moment when one needs ask oneself, "Am I cultured?"
How do you answer that question?
The "kulturny" of the former Soviet Union found themselves outlasted by the fall of the Soviet Union. But, the culture of the kulturny still lives in Russia. There is, at the bottom line, a cultural difference between simply attempting to provide cover for an authoritarianism, and the life of a country.
"Kulturny" is the word the Soviets used to describe the difference between the proletariat and those who governed them. What we're going through with the Leftists attempting to show us the way of the future, and those of us who actually have lives, families and jobs is, we are actually cultured.
Culture was and has been defined as those simply agreed upon civil myths that serve us to a certain politeness within our society. Where the United States has and will fail the new Leftist mythology is upon our insistence that we not only give lip service to the values of our society--our culture--but that we actually put those insistences within our law. Hence, the Constitution.
There is probably not another nation on the Earth that has relied so upon our Constitution. For a a lot of countries, "constitution" is just another way to achieve a lie on a grand, public scale.
We have a different history. Law, and lex supra legis actually has meant something.
Now we are dealing with a critical point in our country's history. Will we maintain our view of the role of lex supra legis, or will we replace the value of law as law, with bending into the wind?
Will we remain a cultured people? I think so. I have faith in the American people. I'm an optimist. We are being tested. There are a lot of folks who believe that the last coupla hundred years were simply flukes. That keeping faith with the culture of America is stupid.
I don't. I believe in the culture of America.
I will not become ne kulturny.
How do you answer that question?
The "kulturny" of the former Soviet Union found themselves outlasted by the fall of the Soviet Union. But, the culture of the kulturny still lives in Russia. There is, at the bottom line, a cultural difference between simply attempting to provide cover for an authoritarianism, and the life of a country.
"Kulturny" is the word the Soviets used to describe the difference between the proletariat and those who governed them. What we're going through with the Leftists attempting to show us the way of the future, and those of us who actually have lives, families and jobs is, we are actually cultured.
Culture was and has been defined as those simply agreed upon civil myths that serve us to a certain politeness within our society. Where the United States has and will fail the new Leftist mythology is upon our insistence that we not only give lip service to the values of our society--our culture--but that we actually put those insistences within our law. Hence, the Constitution.
There is probably not another nation on the Earth that has relied so upon our Constitution. For a a lot of countries, "constitution" is just another way to achieve a lie on a grand, public scale.
We have a different history. Law, and lex supra legis actually has meant something.
Now we are dealing with a critical point in our country's history. Will we maintain our view of the role of lex supra legis, or will we replace the value of law as law, with bending into the wind?
Will we remain a cultured people? I think so. I have faith in the American people. I'm an optimist. We are being tested. There are a lot of folks who believe that the last coupla hundred years were simply flukes. That keeping faith with the culture of America is stupid.
I don't. I believe in the culture of America.
I will not become ne kulturny.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
A Brief Note On Our Economic Situation
Survival requires work.
According to the last employment report from the State's regional economist, there are only 13-thousand of us working in the private sector in Clatsop county. Living in a timber rich county, there are only three hundred jobs in "wood product manufacturing" and 180 jobs in "mining and logging".
Where are the numbers?
Educational and health services are two thousand of these jobs. I would ask the state's economist to break out those educational jobs...are they really "private sector" jobs? Teachers aren't "private" in any sense that I can parse. They're union employees taking checks from the taxes private citizens pay.
Leisure and hospitality represents 37-hundred jobs. If you bus dishes or change sheets, this is your job.
Look at the economy the Democrats in Salem have created for you.
Survival requires work. In the next six months, at least one in twenty businesses in Clatsop county is going to close. In eighteen months, at least one in ten. Survival requires work. If you were living here in 1983 you remember what Broadway in Seaside or Commercial in Astoria looked like. Shuttered, empty storefronts.
As the market declines, as joblessness increases, businesses--the men and women who own businesses--are going to be making guesses as to how well they will continue to do in the near future. Not the short-term "year" or "two-year" short-term. The "next month" or "next three months" short-term. Making the critical decision; continue to go into the hole, or call it quits.
For most businesses in Clatsop county business has been down 20 percent since IV Quarter, 2008. For a lot of businesses, that decline has been forty percent or more. At a certain point, the way these businesses have chosen to operate must fundamentally alter their operations, or cease to exist.
This is the work that must be done in order to survive.
When you look at the "mom and pop" nature of many of our county's businesses, there are lessons to be learned from those who have weathered these business cycle downturns in previous downturns. Plumbers will let men go until they're down to bare bones. Electricians will let men go until they're down to bare bones. Locally owned retail stores will reduce inventory--thank God for UPS and Fedex--and let men and women go until they're operating with barebones staffs. But unlike previous downturns, the pain we've felt economically has yet to be matched with the pain that lies in our futures.
In economic downturns of the past, prices have always maintained their price levels until increases in demand take place. While prices tend to remain where they are (see the Ratchet Effect) companies are able to trade in their goods and services with fairly stable pricing. Certain sectors will experience greater volatility, notably commodities pricing will see price increases that take place before other sectors are able to increase their prices. In declining markets, fewer products and services are being produced. Increasing prices will assure an increase in supplies, but only to those firms willing and able to purchase them at higher prices.
In this economic downturn, the problems of declining markets--smaller returns on investment, reduced inventories and smaller employment pools--will be exacerbated by changes in government policies; higher taxes and fees, new workforce requirements, and the draconian shift to "green" energy supplies. If your business is paying $500 a month on electricity now, after Cap & Trade you'll be paying $1000.00 a month for the same amount of electricity. Where you come up with an additional Six Grand a month is your problem. You're government has a Vision!™
You might feel compelled to talk to your employees about the reasons why you're letting people go, reducing the size of your operation, or simply closing your doors. And until this session in Salem, this was not just a responsibility, but your right.
No longer.
The Democrats in Salem have outlawed your talking to your employees about the issues affecting your business. Unbelievable? Nothing is unbelievable about this crowd in Salem. They have a Leftist agenda, the numbers, and an incredible lack of work skills.
Senate Bill 519 prohibits employers from communicating with their employees on issues that affect their business, including the consequence of pending legislation that affects their jobs.
Some legislature, huh? (Homage to "Charlotte's Web.)
Survival requires work.
Start working today. When the tsunami of Vision!™ and Change!™ hits, we're all going to be swamped. Many of those who have the ability to withstand the tidal waves of financial disaster also have the ability to re-locate. As those with the wealth and ability to move their businesses do so, the declines in our state's economy will increase, joblessness will increase (until the unemployed vote with their feet) and revenue declines--both public and private--will increase.
I've already counseled my mom, who lives on a "fixed-income", to reduce her expenditures ten to fifteen percent. Her kids--me and my siblings--are all in the private sector, and we'll make sure we do what we can to make sure that she can stave off the wolves when she finds she's running short. But the four of us are already in survival mode. One sibling is on the brink of losing her enterprise and at her age and with her background isn't sure what or how to make choices for her future. And none of us are going to be getting a Stimulus check.
We will survive. I will survive. I've been through this before.
Survival requires work. Gotta go now. Back to work.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Government To Auction $104-Billion Next Week
Since President Obama took office, the Fed has issued roughly $33-billion dollars in new Treasury Securities a week.
Ten weeks, that's $330-billion dollars, roughly the amount of our total budget deficit in 1983.
Reading this article from CNBC (unbelievably, owned by NBC) one can get the sense of disaster looming on the horizon. This $104-billion dollar auction is roughly a third of our total budget deficit for 1983. But it's not going to stop here. There are going to be more mega-auctions in the future.
For those of you who are aware of the way things are priced, what do you think will happen to the price of these securities? Will they be going up? Or, will they be going down?
When there's a surplus of a good--any good--in a market, what we tend to see is the price of that good moving downward. It's one of those simple facts of life we forget about when we start claiming that monopolies and oligopolies can artificially set a price. But experience teaches another lesson; even monopolies are encouraged to reduce prices to maximize return on investment. Setting prices artificially too high results in unrealized returns on ones investment.
Unlike monopolies, government securities face a lot of competition. And not just with other government securities, like state and local bonds.
So, what would induce you to invest your cash into a newly issued federal note? Most people would say it's the interest rate offered by the note. Buy a one hundred dollar note for a year at ten percent interest rate, and the end of the year you get $110.00. Neat.
But what is the real rate, if in an auction, that $100.00 note sells for $90.00? Prices going down are a good thing, no? Not in this case. What was a ten percent interest rate has now turned into a 22 percent interest rate; $110.00 for a $90.00 investment. The nominal value of the bond remains the same, but the actual interest rate required for someone to buy this note has jumped up by more than two times the offered rate. Just as markets determine price, markets also determine interest rates. And not always in the way Leftist Intellectuals want them to be determined. They can cry and moan about monopolies, oligopolies, globalism and all the rest--including evil corporations and sustainability--but at the end of the day, the world's billions of people, acting out of their own self-interest, determine the price of goods and services regardless of the policies of those who would be our masters. Democrats are especially good at ignoring the realities of the financial world, more used to name calling those who point out the errancy in their Vision!™ And, since markets are more powerful than governments, as Leftists continue to see their ineffective Vision!™ continually trumped by markets, they seek greater and more intrusive controls over transactions. This, of course, is called "regulatory reform."
Remember, the Soviets entered Russian politics with a rather more or less unregulated economy. By the time they were done, they were basically a broke, third world country. And seventy years behind the rest of the world. Even the great Communist apologists recognized the organizing efficiency of free market capitalism. Their response was to sabotage when possible the West in order to help ameliorate the rational observed, quantitative differences that were apparent between capitalism and socialism.
But, the point here is just this simple: we cannot continue to issue debt as a nation at this rate. Increasing interest rates combined with increasing unemployment, taxes and regulation does not bode well for the hope that our economy will recover and grow. If you know a Democrat, do yourself a favour and point this out, won't you?
Ten weeks, that's $330-billion dollars, roughly the amount of our total budget deficit in 1983.
Reading this article from CNBC (unbelievably, owned by NBC) one can get the sense of disaster looming on the horizon. This $104-billion dollar auction is roughly a third of our total budget deficit for 1983. But it's not going to stop here. There are going to be more mega-auctions in the future.
For those of you who are aware of the way things are priced, what do you think will happen to the price of these securities? Will they be going up? Or, will they be going down?
When there's a surplus of a good--any good--in a market, what we tend to see is the price of that good moving downward. It's one of those simple facts of life we forget about when we start claiming that monopolies and oligopolies can artificially set a price. But experience teaches another lesson; even monopolies are encouraged to reduce prices to maximize return on investment. Setting prices artificially too high results in unrealized returns on ones investment.
Unlike monopolies, government securities face a lot of competition. And not just with other government securities, like state and local bonds.
So, what would induce you to invest your cash into a newly issued federal note? Most people would say it's the interest rate offered by the note. Buy a one hundred dollar note for a year at ten percent interest rate, and the end of the year you get $110.00. Neat.
But what is the real rate, if in an auction, that $100.00 note sells for $90.00? Prices going down are a good thing, no? Not in this case. What was a ten percent interest rate has now turned into a 22 percent interest rate; $110.00 for a $90.00 investment. The nominal value of the bond remains the same, but the actual interest rate required for someone to buy this note has jumped up by more than two times the offered rate. Just as markets determine price, markets also determine interest rates. And not always in the way Leftist Intellectuals want them to be determined. They can cry and moan about monopolies, oligopolies, globalism and all the rest--including evil corporations and sustainability--but at the end of the day, the world's billions of people, acting out of their own self-interest, determine the price of goods and services regardless of the policies of those who would be our masters. Democrats are especially good at ignoring the realities of the financial world, more used to name calling those who point out the errancy in their Vision!™ And, since markets are more powerful than governments, as Leftists continue to see their ineffective Vision!™ continually trumped by markets, they seek greater and more intrusive controls over transactions. This, of course, is called "regulatory reform."
Remember, the Soviets entered Russian politics with a rather more or less unregulated economy. By the time they were done, they were basically a broke, third world country. And seventy years behind the rest of the world. Even the great Communist apologists recognized the organizing efficiency of free market capitalism. Their response was to sabotage when possible the West in order to help ameliorate the rational observed, quantitative differences that were apparent between capitalism and socialism.
But, the point here is just this simple: we cannot continue to issue debt as a nation at this rate. Increasing interest rates combined with increasing unemployment, taxes and regulation does not bode well for the hope that our economy will recover and grow. If you know a Democrat, do yourself a favour and point this out, won't you?
House Passes "Green Jobs Training Bill"
While business on Main Street, Your City, are dying on the vine, our proud leaders in Salem not only refuse to live up to their responsibilities to reduce the drain on the private sector by government regulation and taxation, their new impulse to create a new, green tomorrow is unbridled.
Dave Hunt, current House Speaker and holder of a Bachelor's in Poli-Sci from Columbia and no private work experience, creates "green jobs" by passing a law " that includes a coordinated strategy to better match training opportunities for low-income Oregonians with high-wage, high-demand professions in the green economy."
Uh, what jobs are these?
Manufacturing jobs? Transportation jobs? Is there a new "green" retail sector that none of us have yet to hear from?
We have a 12-point-four percent rate of unemployment. Would it be "green" to work in the woods?
As more and more small businesses teeter on the edge of existence, Dave Hunt--the whiz with a degree from Columbia and no job experience--pushes industry, labour and education "stakeholders" to:
"Identify emerging technologies and innovations likely to advance the green economy;
"Develop a plan designed to leverage and align existing public programs to train and support green-collar workers; and in conjunction with the Oregon Economic and Community
"Development Department;
"Formulate and recommend new or expanded financial incentives or other strategies designed to recruit, retain or expand green economy businesses."
And what, again, is this "green" economy?
Dave Hunt, current House Speaker and holder of a Bachelor's in Poli-Sci from Columbia and no private work experience, creates "green jobs" by passing a law " that includes a coordinated strategy to better match training opportunities for low-income Oregonians with high-wage, high-demand professions in the green economy."
Uh, what jobs are these?
Manufacturing jobs? Transportation jobs? Is there a new "green" retail sector that none of us have yet to hear from?
We have a 12-point-four percent rate of unemployment. Would it be "green" to work in the woods?
As more and more small businesses teeter on the edge of existence, Dave Hunt--the whiz with a degree from Columbia and no job experience--pushes industry, labour and education "stakeholders" to:
"Identify emerging technologies and innovations likely to advance the green economy;
"Develop a plan designed to leverage and align existing public programs to train and support green-collar workers; and in conjunction with the Oregon Economic and Community
"Development Department;
"Formulate and recommend new or expanded financial incentives or other strategies designed to recruit, retain or expand green economy businesses."
And what, again, is this "green" economy?
Carbon Silliness
Among the snow jobs we're being asked to accept--the need to control the markets, the requirement that we "fix" health care--is the canard that carbon dioxide is destroying the earth. One of the rudiments of life on this planet is threatening the planet.
To further promote this madness--whose end result is the implementation of a Cap & Trade system that is essentially a tax on living--all branches of government are being called upon to heal. This latest word from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration highlights the absurd lengths being taken to establish Killer Carbon:
"The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has issued a new press release for the U.S. Department of Transportation's proposal of a new, consumer-friendly replacement tire label. The label will include, for the first time, information about the tire’s impact on fuel economy and CO2 emission reductions. It will also provide consumers with two other key pieces of tire performance information - wet weather traction and tread wear. All three ratings would be prominently displayed on a removable label attached to the replacement tire at the point of sale."
A tire label(pdf) for CO2.
A guess this is consonant for a then presidential candidate whose energy policy was based upon making sure you have enough air in your tires.
These guys are rocket scientists.
To further promote this madness--whose end result is the implementation of a Cap & Trade system that is essentially a tax on living--all branches of government are being called upon to heal. This latest word from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration highlights the absurd lengths being taken to establish Killer Carbon:
"The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has issued a new press release for the U.S. Department of Transportation's proposal of a new, consumer-friendly replacement tire label. The label will include, for the first time, information about the tire’s impact on fuel economy and CO2 emission reductions. It will also provide consumers with two other key pieces of tire performance information - wet weather traction and tread wear. All three ratings would be prominently displayed on a removable label attached to the replacement tire at the point of sale."
A tire label(pdf) for CO2.
A guess this is consonant for a then presidential candidate whose energy policy was based upon making sure you have enough air in your tires.
These guys are rocket scientists.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
The Rise of Fascism: Change Is Cool
I was struck the other day by how illiterate our new President is.
Maybe you've had the same feeling. You get the feeling when listening to interviews with athletes. Especially bad, those athletes who are "Seniors" at major universities, and are unable to construct complete sentences in response to the questions they are asked.
I have this cringe that occurs when I hear the President talk about the "stuff" he's dealing with. Really, when he's off the teleprompter, you realize that he doesn't have the language skills that would be reflective of his advantages; Harvard Law Review? O, rlly?
So enjoy your new President. Where are we going as a country? It doesn't matter, as long as we're all cool.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Stark Declines In Personal Net Worth
(Click on pic to go to link, or here.)Want to know why your business is off twenty percent? Forty percent?
We've seen some serious impacts on wealth as a result of external causes; the creation of the Great Society, the rise of OPEC, the impact of lending to Lesser Developed Countries, and most recently, the impact of government policies forcing a housing bubble and its consequent destruction of the financial industry. Oh, and don't forget that thingy with the airplanes back in 2001.
Government policies affect your personal wealth. Most often, disastrous choices are made following the words "we need to help..."
When government shows up to help, your best choice is to run. Unfortunately, today there's no place to run. We're experiencing the biggest intrusion into the public sector by state and national legislators on a pace we've never before experienced.
We're no longer talking billions. We're into trillions, a number that has numbed the senses of you and your neighbors. What's a few million spent stupidly when we're spending trillions stupidly?
We're killing our wealth. You know, the thing that pays the bills? And we're not stopping. We're moving ahead.
Change!™
Oregon Unemployment
The handwriting is on the wall. Revenue forcasts for the state are totally bogus. The problem with "stimulus" driven jobs is that after the funding dries up, the job goes away. Make-work projects do not improve the investment and business climate for Oregonians. Bankrupting the state to provide unbefore seen services does not improve the investment and business climate of the state. Issues dealing with "social justice" may seem important to the Left, but does nothing for the hard facts of spending more money than your private sector can produce. At the end of the day, you're simply broke and going deeper into debt.
So what are the conclusions of the state's economist, Dave Cooke?
"During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month.
"In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed."
Oregon's solution? Spend more money on stuff. Increase taxes and fees. Problem solved.
So what are the conclusions of the state's economist, Dave Cooke?
"During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month.
"In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed."
Oregon's solution? Spend more money on stuff. Increase taxes and fees. Problem solved.
Monday, June 15, 2009
What Does Dolly Parton Have In Common With Climate Change?
Not much that I can think of. There is that one song from "Best Little Whorehouse In Texas", called The Sidestep.
" Now my good friends, it behooves me to be solemn and declare,I'm for goodness and for profit and for living clean and saying daily prayer. And now, my good friends, you can sleep nights, I'll continue to stand tall.You can trust me, for I promise, I shall keep a watchful eye upon ya'll...
" Ooh I love to dance a little sidestep, now they see me now they don't-I've come and gone and, ooh I love to sweep around the wide step,cut a little swathe and lead the people on."
I bring it up after reading this article. Don't expect to see reporting like this in a paper published in Oregon. We are a Progressive State and we don't question Science when the "science is in." There is Consensus on the Left. And whether it's the need for Stimulus or Free Health Care, the Left does not allow for questions. They are lookin' out for us, you hear?
" Now my good friends, it behooves me to be solemn and declare,I'm for goodness and for profit and for living clean and saying daily prayer. And now, my good friends, you can sleep nights, I'll continue to stand tall.You can trust me, for I promise, I shall keep a watchful eye upon ya'll...
" Ooh I love to dance a little sidestep, now they see me now they don't-I've come and gone and, ooh I love to sweep around the wide step,cut a little swathe and lead the people on."
I bring it up after reading this article. Don't expect to see reporting like this in a paper published in Oregon. We are a Progressive State and we don't question Science when the "science is in." There is Consensus on the Left. And whether it's the need for Stimulus or Free Health Care, the Left does not allow for questions. They are lookin' out for us, you hear?
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Sarah Palin: Serious Threat To The Left
How serious a threat to the Left is a common sense woman like Governor Sarah Palin? A pretty large threat, given the level of contumelies expressed by the "smart" people in the media.
A course its allin' our fault fer being sich igneren' rednecks. Can't you see that when David Letterman alludes to sex between former Governor Eliot Spitzer and Governor Palin's 14-year old daughter that's it's just humour? It takes a special type of sophisticate to appreciate the rape of a child. Try the humorous example of our own Governor Goldschmidt. Ha ha.
How afraid is the Left?
Let's Look At Dave Hunt
This picture was found on the Wiki page for Oregon State Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dave Hunt.Dave has said some rather stupid things during the course of the session. And led the Democrats to some pretty stupid places. How could a man with no clue about what it's like to operate a small business in Oregon find himself leading a group of people that have no clue about what it's like to run a small business in Oregon?
Well, mebbe it's time to look at his experience after high school. I can't blame Sheldon High for the way he turned out. Sheldon has some good people coming out of that school. So what happened after high school?
Columbia University and a degree in Poli-Sci. I went with my son for his interview night for Columbia, and was relieved that he didn't find anything that appealed to him. I know that "Columbia" is a "name" school. Like Brown, Cornell, etc. Maybe I should have applied to a bigger name school than I did for my Ph.D. But I researched the staff at Boston University and only applied there. I knew what tools I needed to add to my quiver of arrows, and merely adding the cache of a name school didn't seem to have any utility. Remember, those who can, do. Those who can't, teach.
So, with a bachelor's in Poli-Sci, the Oregon boy went to Washington, D.C., where he got hooked up as staff with three members of Congress; Slaughter, Baird and Hooley. Staff for politicians. What are heavens for?
Well, he was able to get hooked-up as the Executive Director of the Columbia River Channel Coalition and the Association of Pacific Ports. Doing a quick AltaVista search reveals that these seem to be basically dummy organizations to move funds through to staff. How much advocacy must be done to alibi for a paycheck? It would be interesting to review Mr. Hunt's time card. It's enough that he's found a sconce to offer his needed advice and to have others pay for that advice.
Speaker Hunt has no interest in what it is that will need to be done in order to survive the next 18 months. It will take us that long to elect a new House. He has never invested a dime into any private enterprise. Never written a single paycheck. Has always had an expense account. Here is his statement explaining his pain yesterday as the Oregon House raised personal and corporate income taxes:
'"Today’s vote was a difficult one for all the members of the House, Democrats and Republicans alike. We face an unprecedented global economic crisis that requires every one of us to come together to solve the problems we face.
'“Today, we asked Oregon’s most profitable corporations and wealthiest Oregonians to be a part of the solution that helps bring Oregon out of this recession and bring greater long-term stability to out state.
“'Through the work of Ways and Means Committee, we have already made significant cuts in both the 07-09 and the 09-11 budgets. But we have done so in a way that protects the core services Oregonians require. Without passage of these two bills today, the cuts we would be forced to make would have severed that core and gone far deeper than we believe our constituents would allow.
“'It is never easy to vote for tax measures. And I applaud those members who were willing to stand up for Oregon; to stand up for our children, seniors, disabled and vulnerable Oregonians who rely on the services we pay for with tax dollars.
“'Now we have a clear path to a balanced budget for 2009-2011. There are still plenty of difficult votes and issues ahead. But with yesterday passage of the expansion of our health care system to cover uninsured children, and today’s passage of these two revenue bills, we can finish our work and know that we are doing right by Oregon.'”
Where to begin? Let's start with the second line, "We face an unprecedented global economic crisis that requires every one of us to come together to solve the problems we face."
Who is this guy? Obama? Head of the U.N.? At some point, I would hope an Oregon politician would stop worrying about fixing the world, and start to work on fixing the state. We are facing unprecedented economic problems here, in Oregon, all of which are due to this state continuing to spend more and more money on things we shouldn't be spending money on.
Did we really need to expand our health care system to cover uninsured children? Did you read the bill? Did you read who is really qualified for this new expense? Just poor kids? Nope.
Does the Speaker read the news? Pick up a magazine? Listen to Republicans? Nope. Otherwise he would have found out that Hawaii had to end its "universal child health care" program. But what can you expect of a guy with no business experience, years of doing the bidding of Congressmen, and then doing that community organizing thing? (Oh, yeah. He went to Columbia. He's smart.)
We--the small business owners in Oregon--have eighteen months before we can repeal the laws that have just been passed. Before that, we need to find and recruit candidates to run against these madmen. And then the case needs to be made: we need to elect candidates that want to work for the State of Oregon. Not to serve as ombudsmen of World Change!™ We need to build and repair roads that help us move products and people to markets. We need an energy policy that results in increases in the base load needed for business and industry. For heating your homes and offices. For charging you new, mandated car. We need a jobs policy that means jobs, not government jobs, but jobs that come from using the richness of our state's natural resources instead of locking up those resources. We have wealth. Democrats simply refuse to let us use those resources. For all their concern about Change!™, they really are nothing more than economic prudes, unwilling to allow others to get their hands dirty to make a buck.
Over the next nine to 18 months, the cascading effects of this current legislature will be felt throughout the state. Tax your health insurance premiums? More people will opt out of health insurance. Tax your business and personal income at higher levels? More people will opt out of Oregon into states with more reasonable tax and investment policies. Destroy GM and Chrysler? More newspapers, radio stations and television stations will find themselves on the brink of existence. Radio and TV will suffer; it seems the newspapers have already positioned themselves for federal bail-out checks. Just like you're gonna love the new GM car, you're gonna really love the new federal newspapers.
Car dealers will suffer. Banks will suffer. Defaults on mortgages are going to increase. Broadway in Seaside will begin to shutter as marginal businesses find themselves with no choice but to close their doors. What happens if one, two or three business at Young's Bay Plaza close? Darkened store fronts mean less traffic. The city fathers in Astoria will attempt to avoid the necessary store closings by spending more money on Visit Astoria campaigns. Did you know that automobile dealerships aren't an approved use within the city's planning guidelines? These guys are seriously anti-business. How else to explain all the real, new investment in the county ending up in Warrenton? Even as opportunities dry up and blow away, Astoria continues to dig deeper and deeper. Change!™ Not in Astoria.
Whose fault is all this? Did you pick up the phone once during this current session to talk to your state rep or state senator? Nope?
Declining business leads to declining values in real estate, which leads to declining tax revenues for local government. Which will lead to higher borrowing, as the community's leaders hope to ride out the wave of financial calamity that's coming. And they'll be encouraged to do so by guys like Speaker Hunt. After all, isn't that what the state's legislature has just done? Rather than cut taxes, reduce borrowing and make the state a better place to invest and grow, didn't Speaker Dave just lead the legislature in the opposite direction?
Yep. Enjoy your day.
UPDATE: The take-away line is "At the time of decapitation, Mike weighed 2½ pounds; when he died 18 months later, he weighed nearly 8." But this post kinda explains your government in a way that hopefully makes sense.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Monday, June 8, 2009
One State, One People
Ordnung.
To the German of late 1920's, early '30's, the idea of "order" was important. It wasn't until the mid-30's that the forces of the Green Police were accumulated into what was then known as the Orpo. The Germans of the early Twentieth Century were known as the driving force of progressive thinking. There was a well-established "organic" school that spent time popularizing an idea that there were culturally instituted beliefs that would help a culture "rise" to a new level of understanding the human condition. Relying, in great part, to the writings of Sir Charles Darwin, the organicists of the 19th century decided that human development would, and should necessarily, follow the path set forth by Darwin's expositions of evolution. Relying solely upon a sentiment of self-importance, these new organicists developed a theory of the New Man, which related their interpretations of how the human race must develop, as opposed to a theory that left open the question of how man will develop.
This determinism was exhibited as rather a faulty theory, post-Hitlerism and post-Nazism. But the theory of determinism seems to be alive today. (There is a brief, yet trenchant discussion of determinism here.
Determinism seems to rely upon the notion that at least one person knows more than all other persons. And absent that, that some group or cabal will know more than all other persons. Now, sometimes, that can be the case. As a coach of little kids playing soccer, baseball and basketball, there were times that I could predict the outcomes of games that were yet to be played.
But, if I had coached those kids as if they would never win, I would never, should never, have been a coach.
This is the error of determinism and its followers.
This is a kind of important thing to think about in the coming months and years. How well will you be able to accept that American values are nothing more than a misapprehension of how to live well, and how to live your life? If you accept that we, as Americans, are wrong in believing that we have a better system of living, a better system of government, and a better way of comparing our thoughts and deeds to others living in our world--as does President Obama--then how do we differentiate ourselves from those who seek to achieve a determinist outcome?
That is, if we accept that we as Americans are no different--and probably worse--than others living in the world, how is it that we can do anything but accept that we must become what the determinists insist we must become?
Here is an enjoyable and brief essay (.pdf) on the the role of the Lutheran church during Hitler's ascendancy in Germany.
It ends up begging a whole lot of questions about the rise of national socialism in the 1930's in Germany. Like, where was the Church--in all its forms--during the rise of anti-humanism?
Determinists have as a common fault a belief in their own infallibility. Rationalists have as a common fault a belief in humanity's perfection. It is not going to be any single individual that saves us. It will be the loud, maundering chorus of us, we crowd, we lot of mangy people. The People. We, the People.
So all I can ask of the elitists who temporarily populate Salem and Washington, D.C., please, don't hate us. We will overcome. We always have. We always will. Your search for ordnung is understandable. We've been through it before. What it isn't, is inevitable. And you've been through that before.
To the German of late 1920's, early '30's, the idea of "order" was important. It wasn't until the mid-30's that the forces of the Green Police were accumulated into what was then known as the Orpo. The Germans of the early Twentieth Century were known as the driving force of progressive thinking. There was a well-established "organic" school that spent time popularizing an idea that there were culturally instituted beliefs that would help a culture "rise" to a new level of understanding the human condition. Relying, in great part, to the writings of Sir Charles Darwin, the organicists of the 19th century decided that human development would, and should necessarily, follow the path set forth by Darwin's expositions of evolution. Relying solely upon a sentiment of self-importance, these new organicists developed a theory of the New Man, which related their interpretations of how the human race must develop, as opposed to a theory that left open the question of how man will develop.
This determinism was exhibited as rather a faulty theory, post-Hitlerism and post-Nazism. But the theory of determinism seems to be alive today. (There is a brief, yet trenchant discussion of determinism here.
Determinism seems to rely upon the notion that at least one person knows more than all other persons. And absent that, that some group or cabal will know more than all other persons. Now, sometimes, that can be the case. As a coach of little kids playing soccer, baseball and basketball, there were times that I could predict the outcomes of games that were yet to be played.
But, if I had coached those kids as if they would never win, I would never, should never, have been a coach.
This is the error of determinism and its followers.
This is a kind of important thing to think about in the coming months and years. How well will you be able to accept that American values are nothing more than a misapprehension of how to live well, and how to live your life? If you accept that we, as Americans, are wrong in believing that we have a better system of living, a better system of government, and a better way of comparing our thoughts and deeds to others living in our world--as does President Obama--then how do we differentiate ourselves from those who seek to achieve a determinist outcome?
That is, if we accept that we as Americans are no different--and probably worse--than others living in the world, how is it that we can do anything but accept that we must become what the determinists insist we must become?
Here is an enjoyable and brief essay (.pdf) on the the role of the Lutheran church during Hitler's ascendancy in Germany.
It ends up begging a whole lot of questions about the rise of national socialism in the 1930's in Germany. Like, where was the Church--in all its forms--during the rise of anti-humanism?
Determinists have as a common fault a belief in their own infallibility. Rationalists have as a common fault a belief in humanity's perfection. It is not going to be any single individual that saves us. It will be the loud, maundering chorus of us, we crowd, we lot of mangy people. The People. We, the People.
So all I can ask of the elitists who temporarily populate Salem and Washington, D.C., please, don't hate us. We will overcome. We always have. We always will. Your search for ordnung is understandable. We've been through it before. What it isn't, is inevitable. And you've been through that before.
Political Stasis, Or You Can't Fix Stupid
How stupid are House Bills 3405 and 2649?
Really stupid.
But that won't stop them from passing. Here's the contact info for your state legislators:
Betsy Johnson
Party: D District: 16
Capitol Phone: 503-986-1716
Capitol Address: 900 Court St. NE., S-215, Salem, OR, 97301
Email: sen.betsyjohnson@state.or.us
Website: http://www.leg.state.or.us/johnson
Debby Boone
Party: D District: 32
Capitol Phone: 503-986-1432
Interim Phone: 503-717-9182
Capitol Address: 900 Court St NE, H-375, Salem, , OR, 97301
Interim Address: PO Box 928, Cannon Beach, OR, 97110
Email: rep.deborahboone@state.or.us
Website: http://www.leg.state.or.us/boone
Brad Witt
Party: D
District: 31
Capitol Phone: 503-986-1431
Capitol Address: 900 Court St. NE, H-374, Salem, OR, 97301
Email: rep.bradwitt@state.or.us
Website: http://www.leg.state.or.us/witt
Whether you e-mail, call or write, and I'd hope you'd make a call, just let them know that you'd appreciate their opposition to these bills. Times are hard, and running up taxes on the folks who make the money they spend would be appreciated.
House Bill 3405 increases corporate taxes on business.
House Bill 2649 increases personal income taxes.
Will passing either of these bills make it more likely that you will see an increase in business investment--and concurrent increases in employment--more likely, or less likely?
Advocates of these bills will tell you it's time that the rich pay more of their fair share. If you're employed, chances are that you work for a Subchapter "S" corporation. (This is a statistical likelihood based on the sheer number of "S-Corps" out there. Locally, there's also a pretty big chance that you're working for a small, mom and pop partnership. But the tax rules are still the same.)
How do S-Corps treat taxes? Like personal income.
Raising taxes on "the rich" and "corporations" is more likely a double increase in taxes for the folks who make, buy and sell stuff in Oregon. But Democrats--most of them--have never had jobs making, buying or selling stuff. Teachers only pay tax on their 1040's. Lawyers, same thing. Community organizers? Same.
They have no clue what a reduction of after tax income means to the input mix of any business. When profits decline, employment decreases. Building a company from scratch, these people have no idea how difficult it is to "finally" hire your first employee, or your second, or your third. They believe that business has a template; you're rich and you just start hiring people. (Morons.)
As difficult as it is to hire your first employee, it's not as difficult as terminating that employee. When the hand-writing is on the wall, you let people go. The first one is hard, emotionally. The second one is easier. By the third, or fifteenth, you've got your "letting people go" mojo in high gear. As you trim you seek to retain the most productive, the most loyal. You are oblivious to the political currents swimming around in places like Salem. Survival means making choices. When you're bailing out your personal economic boat, you throw people overboard.
There is no throwing overboard of people in Salem. We could cut our current budget by at least twenty-five percent and you and I would see no reduction in the valued services we receive from the state. We won't, because someone, somewhere, would complain about "fairness" or "social justice." (Oh, don't forget sustainability, the children, the elderly and our teachers. And the union members. Mebbe teachers and union members is redundant.)
By passing HB 3405 and 2649, we allow Salem to refuse to empty the lifeboat, while forcing the private sector to do so. You don't have to be a business owner to see the writing on the wall. If you work for someone else, remember, failing to call, failing to fight against these tax increases means you're more likely to face the employment cuts the state is unwilling to force upon itself. We, you and I, are the enemy of the state and public employee unions and the teachers. And we will be defeated with passage of these bills.
We will spend more and more on government and public employees. At the expense of private jobs, private businesses and private companies.
Democrats will vote for these bills, citing concerns about the environment, sustainability, a new Vision for the future; all of this is simple crap.
They can't make decisions. You've elected them. They control the public checkbook. And they are on a spending spree.
As the economy continues to shrink--in terms of private employment--fewer new companies will be willing to enter Oregon's economy sans massive government expenditures, either through tax forgiveness or subsidy. Neither of these forms of enticement are financially sustainable in the long run. Buying investment with public funds isn't really the miracle that Governor K and his witless minions in the House and Senate want you to believe it is. It's simple cronyism and a form of graft.
Last time I checked, neither of these were sustainable forms of public policy. But it's what we have. And it's stupid. And you can't fix stupid.
Really stupid.
But that won't stop them from passing. Here's the contact info for your state legislators:
Betsy Johnson
Party: D District: 16
Capitol Phone: 503-986-1716
Capitol Address: 900 Court St. NE., S-215, Salem, OR, 97301
Email: sen.betsyjohnson@state.or.us
Website: http://www.leg.state.or.us/johnson
Debby Boone
Party: D District: 32
Capitol Phone: 503-986-1432
Interim Phone: 503-717-9182
Capitol Address: 900 Court St NE, H-375, Salem, , OR, 97301
Interim Address: PO Box 928, Cannon Beach, OR, 97110
Email: rep.deborahboone@state.or.us
Website: http://www.leg.state.or.us/boone
Brad Witt
Party: D
District: 31
Capitol Phone: 503-986-1431
Capitol Address: 900 Court St. NE, H-374, Salem, OR, 97301
Email: rep.bradwitt@state.or.us
Website: http://www.leg.state.or.us/witt
Whether you e-mail, call or write, and I'd hope you'd make a call, just let them know that you'd appreciate their opposition to these bills. Times are hard, and running up taxes on the folks who make the money they spend would be appreciated.
House Bill 3405 increases corporate taxes on business.
House Bill 2649 increases personal income taxes.
Will passing either of these bills make it more likely that you will see an increase in business investment--and concurrent increases in employment--more likely, or less likely?
Advocates of these bills will tell you it's time that the rich pay more of their fair share. If you're employed, chances are that you work for a Subchapter "S" corporation. (This is a statistical likelihood based on the sheer number of "S-Corps" out there. Locally, there's also a pretty big chance that you're working for a small, mom and pop partnership. But the tax rules are still the same.)
How do S-Corps treat taxes? Like personal income.
Raising taxes on "the rich" and "corporations" is more likely a double increase in taxes for the folks who make, buy and sell stuff in Oregon. But Democrats--most of them--have never had jobs making, buying or selling stuff. Teachers only pay tax on their 1040's. Lawyers, same thing. Community organizers? Same.
They have no clue what a reduction of after tax income means to the input mix of any business. When profits decline, employment decreases. Building a company from scratch, these people have no idea how difficult it is to "finally" hire your first employee, or your second, or your third. They believe that business has a template; you're rich and you just start hiring people. (Morons.)
As difficult as it is to hire your first employee, it's not as difficult as terminating that employee. When the hand-writing is on the wall, you let people go. The first one is hard, emotionally. The second one is easier. By the third, or fifteenth, you've got your "letting people go" mojo in high gear. As you trim you seek to retain the most productive, the most loyal. You are oblivious to the political currents swimming around in places like Salem. Survival means making choices. When you're bailing out your personal economic boat, you throw people overboard.
There is no throwing overboard of people in Salem. We could cut our current budget by at least twenty-five percent and you and I would see no reduction in the valued services we receive from the state. We won't, because someone, somewhere, would complain about "fairness" or "social justice." (Oh, don't forget sustainability, the children, the elderly and our teachers. And the union members. Mebbe teachers and union members is redundant.)
By passing HB 3405 and 2649, we allow Salem to refuse to empty the lifeboat, while forcing the private sector to do so. You don't have to be a business owner to see the writing on the wall. If you work for someone else, remember, failing to call, failing to fight against these tax increases means you're more likely to face the employment cuts the state is unwilling to force upon itself. We, you and I, are the enemy of the state and public employee unions and the teachers. And we will be defeated with passage of these bills.
We will spend more and more on government and public employees. At the expense of private jobs, private businesses and private companies.
Democrats will vote for these bills, citing concerns about the environment, sustainability, a new Vision for the future; all of this is simple crap.
They can't make decisions. You've elected them. They control the public checkbook. And they are on a spending spree.
As the economy continues to shrink--in terms of private employment--fewer new companies will be willing to enter Oregon's economy sans massive government expenditures, either through tax forgiveness or subsidy. Neither of these forms of enticement are financially sustainable in the long run. Buying investment with public funds isn't really the miracle that Governor K and his witless minions in the House and Senate want you to believe it is. It's simple cronyism and a form of graft.
Last time I checked, neither of these were sustainable forms of public policy. But it's what we have. And it's stupid. And you can't fix stupid.
Monday, June 1, 2009
China Not Buying Change!™
One of the problems with relying upon static analysis is that you assume a box. And that all the variables inside the box are the only variables you need to worry about.
That's why you hear folks say things like, "you need to think outside the box."
Another feature of the static box is that it tends to become an echo chamber. You hear the same responses to the same variables over and over again. Of course this leads to both self-reinforcement of certain opinions and another popular antidote for static box echo effects, "if you're digging yourself into a hole, stop digging."
At some point one needs to think outside the box and to stop digging a deeper hole.
This is the advice of our Chinese friends to the man who is in charge of our financial future, Treasury Secretary Tim "Taxman" Geithner. From Bloomberg:
"Seventeen of 23 Chinese economists polled in connection with Geithner’s visit said holdings of Treasuries are a “great risk” for the nation’s economy, according to a Chinese state media report yesterday...
“It will be helpful if Geithner can show us some arithmetic..."
Yeppers. It would be helpful to see some math. Part of the cant of the Left is that Republicans are anti-science. I guess it's time to point out that Leftists are anti-math. (Which goes a long way toward explaining their "scientific views".)
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