ODOT and Transportation: Kicking the Can Down the Road

Leadership.

A forgotten quality among Oregonians. Who would you follow today?

Since we don't elect leaders any more, we need to find the right committee. Simply building a road in Oregon requires that we have input from the public. The last great project--that was the product of leadership--was the Mount Hood Freeway project.

The project, designed by Robert Moses, would have allowed Portland to grow and service her citizens with adequate highways. For those of us who actually travel to Portland, the proposed freeway system seems like a dream from Disney's Future Land.

Understood by Robert Moses, Walt Disney's vision of tomorrow had a consonant theme: the freedom of the individual. Both Moses and Disney saw America as a future where each person would be able to afford and own a personal means of transportation. For those of us who value our independence, restrictions on transportation and ownership of a private automobile seemed antithetical to freedom.

And it is.

Having wealth means having greater independence. Having independence means having greater wealth.

The future of America is tied as much to its citizens as it is to it's transportation system. That's why the future of Oregon is so bleak. Just take a look at our Governor's transportation plan. Sometime, someone must explain to the Governor that simply requiring all of us to use food for fuel won't result in economies of scale, since ethanol is a product that won't be transported into markets by pipeline. Not only is it responsible for higher CO2 emissions, it's costing those of us required to use it twenty percent of our fuel efficiency--meaning an extra tank of gas for every previous five tanks--and forcing us to burn food as fuel...instead of fuel. Not that I'm against increasing CO2 emissions. I'm for it. If you guarantee me 2 degrees of temperature increase in 100 years, that means my great-grandchildren will have 18 degree cold days, instead of 16 degree cold days, and 98 degree hot days, instead of 96 degree hot days.

Not that they will notice the difference.

Because, the difference isn't really that great, after all. Nothing at all in comparison to the costs that your government is willing to impose on you today, for a science that is less than clear. And the costs that government want to impose on you and I are ridiculously high.

In his article, "Discounting Greenhouse Gas Effects in the Distant Future" (Gary Becker, February 4, 2007) Becker writes,

"Suppose the utility damages from global warming to generations 50 years from now are equivalent to about $2 trillion of their welfare. At a 3 percent discount rate, this major damage would be valued today at about $500 billion, while any spending today that reduces the harm to future generations would be valued dollar for dollar."

"Then with a 3 percent discount rate it would not pay to eliminate these very harmful effects on future generations if the cost were $800 billion (or more generally at least $500 billion) to largely eliminate the future harm from greenhouse gas emissions through steep taxes on emission, carbon sequestration, and other methods."

Unfortunately, no one is looking at the cost of a thing. Since the state has mandated that I buy ethanol, I'm now buying 20 percent more gasoline. As is every other person in Clatsop County. Again, what is the cost of attempting to mitigate Man Made Global Warming through Transportation Policy?

The Governor ("Kulongoski previews ‘green’ transportation plan", Portland Tribune, April 11, 2008):

"Kulongoski said the goal of the package will be to develop a transportation system that will provide energy security, and that serves people and businesses without sacrificing the environment.

"He explained it will encompass four areas: a low-carbon fuel standard; car technology improvements; reducing the amount that people drive...and improving overall efficiency of the state’s transportation system."

As near as I can tell, all we're going to do is fail to build roads and force people to buy ethanol. It's not really "four" areas, but who said Lefties could count.

So far, the state has become good at a few things. Roads that don't move people efficiently. Forcing us to buy gasoline we don't want to buy. With work, the Governor hopes to add greater impediments to the amount that people are willing to drive, and to force cars on us we don't want.

We've gotten pretty far away from the American Dream. But Lefties will tell you this is the price of "sustainability". Whatever the hell that is. I think it's "throwing in the towel". The kind of neo-Malthusianism spoken of here by Becker ("Rising Food Prices and What That Means" Becker, October 28, 2007):

"The biologist Paul Ehrlich even predicted in 1968 in the book "The Population Bomb" that hundreds of millions persons in the world would be starving by the mid-1970's because of food shortages. Of course, that absurd forecast never materialized because during the past 40 years worldwide prices for grains and most other basic foods fell relative to non-food consumer prices. This has reversed during the past couple of years, especially in 2007, as food price inflation has greatly exceeded the price increases of other consumer prices. Are the Malthusian fears finally being realized, or is this rise in food prices due to other forces?'

...

"My conclusion is that putting aside two major uncertainties, the Malthusian fears about rising food prices will not materialize. Food production will adapt to the growing demands from developing countries, and food prices in the future should continue their downward trend of the past century. One uncertainty that could upset this optimistic forecast relates to global warming, for food prices might rise steeply if global warming had sizable negative effects on the worldwide productivity of agricultural land. The second concerns biofuels, since food prices would also increase if sizable amounts of additional acreage continue to be diverted to production of ethanol and other biofuels in the attempt to cut down the use of fossil fuels."

The Governor is trying to leave a mark on Oregon. And, unless and until Oregonians are willing to start asking some trenchant questions, chances are, he will leave his mark. As great, if not greater, than that left by Governor Neil Goldschmidt when he cancelled the state's plan to develop real freeways for the only major metropolitan area in Oregon. When cancelled, all the land necessary for the project had been purchased by the state. Since then, Goldschmidt and his minions and successors, have divied up the prize for personal gain.

Ethanol isn't being produced for free. A lot of money has been given to friends of Governor Kulongoski to force you to buy ethanol. Next up? A transportation plan that further's the goals of cronyism in Oregon.

For the kids. For the elderly. For the teachers. Oh. I forgot. Teachers are union members.

Then, for the unions.

Leftists Remain Belligerently Naive: Part III

"What I do think is important is that you look at the evidence and ask yourself whether you accept it in order to further your political whimsey, or if you can't accept it because it simply reeks of falsity."("Clinton's Earn $109 Million: Leftists Remain Belligerently Naive", April 5, 2008.)

In Part 2, I refer you to a video on Senator Obama titled "The Art of Bamboozling."

In "BBC Reporter Makes Sense: Then Beaten Into Submission" (April 13, 2008) I refer to a Press Release from the State of Oregon:

"Bradbury is among a select group of 50 individuals chosen to receive rigorous technical training by Gore and a team of renowned scientists last July in Tennessee. He will be joined by Jim Cathcart, an ODF specialist in carbon storage, for a question-and-answer period following the presentation."

I used this quote to underscore the pomposity of the Left. "Select group of 50..." I guess there are different levels among the accolytes of the Church of ManBearPig. Then, I get this Press Release for an upcoming event at OMSI:

News Release from: OMSI
OMSI PRESENTS AN EVENING DISCUSSION: CLIMATE CHANGE IN OREGON: INCONVENIENT TRUTH AND UNFORESEEN OPPORTUNITY
Posted: April 15th, 2008 4:14 PM

WHAT:
As part of OMSI's ongoing adult discussion series Brainstorm: Engaging with the Experts, Cylvia Hayes presents a unique, solution-oriented spin on the science behind and current day impacts of global climate change. Hayes will focus on the special challenges and opportunities climate change presents for Oregon and offer a pragmatic roadmap for how we can effectively address this crucial issue.

WHO:
Cylvia Hayes is one of 1,000 people worldwide chosen by former Vice President Al Gore to be trained to deliver the slideshow that led to the film An Inconvenient Truth. Hayes is the founder and executive director of 3EStrategies, a nonprofit consulting organization with a mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable building, energy, and economic practices. Hayes is currently serving on Governor Kulongoski's Renewable Energy Working Group.

WHEN:
April 22, 7:00-9:00 p.m.

WHERE:
OMSI Auditorium. OMSI is located at 1945 SE Water Avenue.

Okay? Did you see it? It's this "illegitimate appeal to authority" refered to here. ("Healthy Skepticism and Real Science", February 29, 2008.)

I've been reluctant to criticize OMSI. Even when it included Science Hack Phillip Mote in it's Sound Science program. (Previous on Dr. Mote here, here and here.) But the Left is getting increasingly crazy around here. And

I was simply struck: Secretary of State Bill Bradbury is "one of 50". Cylvia Hayes is "one of 1,000".

I wait for the Arnold Horshack moment. "Ooh! Ooh! Ooh! Ooh!"

The Energy Policy of the State of Oregon is for us to burn food for energy. This is what they refer to as "sustainable" policy. How long can we sustain this policy of "sustainability"? I guess you can ask Ms. Hayes. She has a Master's in Environmental Studies degree, with a major in Sustainability and Biodiversity Preservation. And, she's One In A Thousand.

UPDATE: This just in from the state's Department of Environmental Quality, a web page from DEQ "10 ways Oregonians can prevent pollution, conserve resources and save money." Of course, if you go to their "10 Ways for Consumers to Prevent Pollution, Conserve Resources and Save Money" web page, you'll see 39 ways for...

Again, 10 equals 39. It's math for Lefties.

UPDATE: Daniel's Political Musings provides a link to the work product of the state's Department of Administrative Services.

"This is their brand new policy which reads like a third grader tried to copy the Declaration of Independence and make it about Earth Day. Setting high standards is a great thing but in the private sector a cost/benefit analysis would be done to see if meeting this standard is worth it."

Looks like Daniel has found another source of consistency on the Left.

Everybody Talks About The Weather...

but nobody does anything about it.

And we still don't. We can be smarter. We choose dumb.

One of the joys of having children is pointing out the "rules of the road" for life. One of the rules I've shared with my sons is "smart is additive, dumb is multiplicative."

Give two middle-aged guys a chain saw and step back. Since "play" is the best way to teach, the first thing our two middle-aged guys are going to do--this being their first time with a chainsaw in their hands--is "play" with some unsuspecting tree. Or bush. Or some type of timber. Not meeting disaster, this play will accelerate until the learning curve goes flat. And the luckier they are, the more quickly will be found the flat point on the learning curve. This is where major injuries are introduced, or tree tops on out buildings, cars or people occur.

Coming off a record low-temperature winter, the two guys with a chain saw are Stephan Saunders, the guy at Rocky Mountain Climate Organization. Armed with temperature reports from the last hundred years, this guy studied the temperature reports. His prediction? 3-point-4 degrees warmer.

He gets 1-point-four degrees from average temperature data from the past five years. (Hold it, din't he have 100 years of temperature date? Hey, this is science. Whadda you know!) Then, in a real sciency more, says there's already enough pollution in the atmosphere for another two degrees warming.

Whew! Science that doesn't make you think. That, my friends, is a real break-through. And shows you where those public school teachers have been taking our kids for the last 40 years.

This is reminiscent of Edgar Allen Rich, "free, are we, from Diety; of course, it sort of leaves a little void!" (Tom Jones, Celebration, 1969.)

The free-form science being shared here is the result of funding from our federal government.

"Each year, the EPA awards over half of its annual budget, totaling over $4 billion, in grants. This amounts to between seven to eight thousand grants or grant actions taken each year. EPA awards both discretionary and non-discretionary grants to recipients such as state, local, and tribal governments, educational institutions, non-profit organizations, foreign recipients, and individuals among other types of recipients." ("Grants Management at the Environmental Protection Agency" September, 2004 (pdf).)

So, the good news is, nobody was out of pocket for this study. Just like the "dead zone" study last year, lots of steam is being generated, but no real science. Locals, the guys who go out and fish, have known about these "dead zones" for generations. But nobody thought to ask the fishermen.

They called the geeniusses at OSU who had never heard of such a thing. The advantages of a public education.

But to get a real feel for what's going on behind the Man Made Global Warming campaign, a visit to the National Resource Defense Council website is instructive. Since there seems to be no robust science taking place here, robustness has been replaced by hysteria. Oh, and somewhere on this website, Saunder's report, "Warming In The West" can be found. Find it and read it. It has all the sciency rigour of two women talking over the fence while hanging up the drying. But, if you're into climate gossip, you'll be happy.

BBC Reporter Makes Sense: Then Beaten Into Submission

London, covered in snow, in April.

We are absolute suckers for British accents. It didn't reallly matter if you understood what was being said, Monty Python was funny. And, because of the accent, it was "intelligent". This outlook was reinforced during the '70's by Alistair Cooke, the host of Masterpiece Theater, which set in many minds the advantage of state supported production of art and media. American television would have never, said the wags, produced such remarkable programs as these. I, too,was a fan of "I, Claudius", a remarkably staged presentation of the decline of the House of Caeser. Americans, on the other hand, produced the awful "Caligula". Just another reason to question the ethics and morality of Gore Vidal.

Britain good and smart. America bad and dumb.

But what happens when a good old American value is discovered in England?

It's suppressed. Which we should be doing more of here.

From the BBC: "Global temperatures 'to decrease' (April 4, 2008, BBC News, then scroll down.)

"Citing the World Meteorological Organisation, Mr Harrabin accurately reported that "global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory'."

They handle consensus differently in Europe than we do here in the States. See, a good old American value is truth. If you can falsify a claim, well, it just isn't true. The horrid nature of the Man Made Global Warming myth is, for the GlobalAlarmistManBearPigs, we need to keep beating this dead horse. Which is just unseemly. But the GlobalAlarmistManBearPigs keep pitching their woo to the gullible, continuing their scam on the unwitting or witless.

Still believe in Man Made Global Warming? Come to the chatauqua, Saturday, April 19th, at the Tillamook Forest Center. This former TV "news reporter" will share Al Gore's Oscar™ Award Winning Film Masterpiece An Inconvenient Truth.

"Bradbury is among a select group of 50 individuals chosen to receive rigorous technical training by Gore and a team of renowned scientists last July in Tennessee. He will be joined by Jim Cathcart, an ODF specialist in carbon storage, for a question-and-answer period following the presentation."

Readers of this blog may remember Mr. Cathcart from this post. You can work his creative work here (pdf). Don't be amazed to find out that efforts like his are soon to create the most draconian environmental legislation and regulation in our state's history, as your Department of Environmental Quality proposes sweeping mandates in its Cap and Trade proposals.

In America, values like "is it true" resonate. In Oregon, we do things "our way". It's too bad the Oregon Way has become one where simple things like the truth are suppressed. But for really good reasons.

So we keep beating and beating this poor, old, dead horse. Because politicians, like Governor Kulongoski and Secretary of State Bradbury keep riding it. Or, at least keep running around the state in a pick-up truck, pulling the dead carcass out to the amazement of gullible followers. There's not a single skeptic among them.

Sad, really.